So, we should probably be a little careful with the price of bitcoins

bitcoin260313

Above is the three month price chart for bitcoins as quoted in US dollars at the most established bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox.

I would be little careful with this, because whenever something that has “no intrinsic value” approximately six-folds in value in a narrow market (under 1 billion market cap in total compared to the Fed expanding reserves by 85 billion a month even though that might not speak of the greatness of the latter per se), you should really know what the product is worth. It is not that long ago that we saw silver rise in rather parabolic fashion from about 17 dollars to 46 dollars only to tank 30 per cent in very fast succession. Personally at least, I have absolutely no idea what would be an appropriate value for bitcoins, not even a ball park figure, unlike what is possible with common stock of companies that produce cash flows. While I do follow the development of this particular currency with some excitement especially as the ECB is not overly exhilarated about it, it is still not particularly interesting as a store of value.

Under the title of reputational risk the ECB penned in October of last year:

The reputation of central banks is a key element determining the effectiveness of their various policies, especially monetary policy. A reputation is hard to earn, but very easy to lose. (The only question I have is what might they think of compromising the integrity of deposit insurance for example…)

Since central banks are the institutions to which people look in order to establish how much trust to place in money, they are very much concerned about their reputation. For the ECB, reputational risk is defined as the risk of deterioration of the reputation, credibility or public image of the ECB towards different external stakeholders (e.g. general public, financial sector, etc.). It is included as it has a specific impact on operational risk, which is defined as the risk of negative financial, business or reputational impacts resulting from inadequate or failed internal governance and business processes, people, systems or from external events. A reputational impact may occur even when business objectives are being met, i.e. even if central banks are not responsible. Virtual currency schemes are able to have a reputational impact. They are about money and about payments  and therefore, for the general public, they clearly fall under the responsibility of central banks, even though this might not be the case from a statutory and legal point of view. Therefore, the possibility of a reputational impact in the event of a security incident should be taken into account. Although the impact of a failure of a virtual currency scheme would be limited, assuming they do not significantly grow in size, the likelihood is considerable as a result of the high volatility and instability of virtual currency schemes and the broad media coverage they receive from time to time (for instance, Bitcoin).

And:

If the use of virtual currency schemes grows considerably, incidents which attract press coverage could have negative impacts on the reputations of central banks, if the public perceives the incidents as being caused, in part, by central banks not doing their jobs properly. As a consequence, this risk should be considered when assessing the overall risk situation of central banks.

Fancy that. Unsurprisingly, ECB’s philosophical approach to alternative currencies is somewhat different than that which actually powers bitcoins, but I suppose monopolies tend to be a bit jealous over their fiefdoms.

And of course, only villains would use these hideous things:

Virtual currency schemes, in contrast to traditional payment systems, are not regulated. The legal uncertainty surrounding these schemes might constitute a challenge for public authorities, as these schemes can be used by criminals, fraudsters and money launderers to perform their illegal activities.

Unregulated phenomena like the English language for example obviously can never develop into anything useful.

This Cyprus affair is getting really interesting

So, there appears to be some worry that the deal will not go through as the administration can only firmly expect to get couple votes short of passage with the remainder hanging in the balance and majority of the people saying no in the latest polls. Enough worries to have the government decree an extraordinary bank holiday for Tuesday and postpone the vote until late Monday, which already means financial markets will open to no deal situation with euro pointing decidedly downwards already. My due condolences to those long Italian banks. And it also appears that Greece central bank might be the lender-of-last-resort for Cyprus banks for now, which is probably greatly appreciated by the body of people in Greece if the money never comes back and in fact goes into supporting deposit withdrawals by Russian clients with money of dubious origin. Don’t worry though, ad-hoc solutions, secrecy, layers upon layers of confusion and information suppression support genuine trust if you believe it hard enough.

European Union seems to be acting as a sort of an extortion racket here; they are forcing the hand of Cyprus’ parliament. The parliament cannot really say no for too long, because otherwise they will be blamed for what happens next. It was perhaps ingenious on the part of the EU to play their cards this way; by threatening to confiscate the deposits of everyone including deposits protected as of Friday by deposit insurance, the EU guaranteed that in any absence of a deal, people will still initiate a bank run large enough in size to make them scared enough to impose a bank holiday much like they will do even if EU backs down, effectively making the national parliament of Cyprus completely redundant. It is also a huge gamble and show of power, and altogether something governments should perhaps not be. ECB could of course keep the banking system liquid for the time being with emergency lending, but if the banks open on Wednesday or the next week with no deal, billions will disappear from the banks with foreign deposits then probably being in the safe, putting significantly more pressure on the remaining deposits at which point there will probably be more bulldozers parked at bank premises especially by those who took out sizable mortgages late last week. And Merkel does not want to see ECB cave in. A no vote here seems particularly unlikely, while a yes vote seems very close to being illegal and perhaps up for legal contest later, so perhaps we will see a TARP redux with plunging stocks turning a no into a yes against 100-to-1 public opposition. The conservative case though is ruthlessly effective; we know we did nothing to prevent this, but you must still do as we say, because the opposite is worse for you, and for simplicity we have reduced the choices to either yes or no. Most people become die hard conservatives the very second liberalism starts looking like something other than double rainbows.

It would have been easier had they decided to honor the deposit insurance they themselves hold so dear. Liberalism has always been an option: yesterday, today and tomorrow. Greece though seems to remind us constantly that the opposite has far more appeal for reasons I don’t quite understand. Furthermore, it does seem like there is not much understanding here about the function failure and bankruptcy serve in a free economy. Moreover, Cyprus has had nothing but time to enact a bank resolution framework based on law expanding bankruptcy laws for deposit taking institutions instead of having been forced into ad-hoc deals with the EU if they have indeed deemed liberalism a non-starter. Or they could just honor the deposit insurance and existing laws in place as of Friday but now in question for the sake of preserving the last vestiges of integrity the law still has. Depositors suffering losses instead of taxpayers in any country is the correct course of action, but not like this. In reality, Cyprus creditors should not be protected, bank creditors should not be protected, bank management should not be protected and existing failing structures should not be protected against new entrepreneurs. We have most certainly already thrown caution to the wind here in Europe with EFSF, ESM, OMT etc, but if this blows up in the next few days, the reason for it is supremely stupid; Merkel is trying to boost her election chances against a looming defeat in September over few billion euros when the entire transfer union apparatus has been against rules from day one. And she was reportedly seeking up to 40 percent haircuts on all deposits, which puts her support for the concept of property rights in serious question, and possibly reveals quite a bit about her desperation over the traction Alternative für Deutschland is gaining with support pegged at up to 25 per cent, even though I do not necessarily understand why would Germans be that upset with the euro as they are not really suffering here in economic terms at all. If they just wish for less authoritarian policy, then all is well.

There is clearly an element of increasingly strong bond between sovereignty and solvency at play here; absence of the latter is being swiftly used to force concessions on the former and as a conduit towards further harmonization so that a unified and presumably nationalist Europe can be brought about. The same theme has manifested itself strongly in Greece and Italy and to some extent in Spain, Ireland and Portugal. This coercive relationship between the federal Europe and member states is nowhere to be found in the constitution except for the questionable stability pact and what is implied by the euro area arrangement with prohibition of monetary financing. Yet even that is clearly just a passive element, which member states should take into account, not something that empowers action by the EU to far exceed its powers and start decreeing tax regime changes etc. The EU constitution clearly does not give much power over taxation to the federal government even though few measures have been put forth, but it does seem like these elements are being introduced even in somewhat more overt fashion than elaborated by the French diplomat Jean Monnet. It is interesting, however, how the lapses of the stability pact and its supposed enforcement mechanism have gradually transformed into this Troika driven instrument that was not envisioned or included in the treaties but that is nonetheless today the most notable instrument affecting relations between the federal state and the member states in the European Union or euro area specifically, even far more so than CAP, free trade area or the Court of Justice for example.

Just as a point of curiosity, when was the last time the federal government attempted to interfere this strongly in the affairs of one or more of the Several States in the US?

This could also have some really interesting ramifications to Italy’s political situation/gridlock and Grillo’s rhetoric, something Germany definitely was not looking for.

Somewhere Bastiat must be spinning in his grave.

Cyprus – Did private property just sort of cease to exist in Europe?

From Bloomberg:

Euro-area finance ministers agreed to an unprecedented tax on Cypriot bank deposits as officials unveiled a 10 billion-euro ($13 billion) rescue plan for the country, the fifth since Europe’s debt crisis broke out in 2009.

Cyprus will impose a levy of 6.75 percent on deposits of less than 100,000 euros — the ceiling for European Union account insurance — and 9.9 percent above that. The measures will raise 5.8 billion euros, Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who leads the group of euro-area ministers, told reporters early today after 10 hours of talks in Brussels. The euro region’s bailout kitty and, possibly, the International Monetary Fund will look to make up the shortfall. A partial “bail-in” of junior bondholders is also possible.

Quite interesting. So, if a bank is about to go under in Europe, it is supposedly instrumental that deposits are guaranteed up to 100k (we all remember the hasty process of ensuring everyone that the entire Europe would stand firm on this), but it is completely fair game for the state apparatus to just steal anywhere from 6.75 to 9.9 per cent of private property if they feel that that is appropriate, and everything is being handled over the weekend just to promote the open society agenda EU totally has. This at least means that the same process can be repeated anywhere over the weekend, which in turn means that EU just significantly increased the cost of holding bank deposits in at least the entire euro area. There is no way someone would have believed this could be done in Europe just few days ago, but now one must ask why would anyone hold cash on a bank account in the euro area. Secondly, they made the deposit insurance quite redundant. Thirdly, it does not look good for private property if the state can suddenly impose a significant wealth tax over the weekend, freeze assets, block electronic transfers and presumably call the parliament to either accept it or accept it, all by executive fiat. There is no wrong-doing indicated here by independent courts; they are just doing it. In all fairness though, deposits are of course debt instruments issued by a bank and as such “depositors” are funding the bank as debt investors, but governments practically never assert anything like this. Even then, freezing assets and blocking transfers is illegal, but of course necessary if they are to pull this off.

“As it is a contribution to the financial stability of Cyprus, it seems just to ask a contribution of all deposit holders,” Dijsselbloem said, noting the country’s financial industry was five times the size of its economy. The plan includes “unique measures” that address the “exceptional nature” of Cyprus and show “inflexible commitment to financial stability and the integrity of the euro area.”

“This kind of stability fee is clearly a much better choice from the point of view of financial stability and Cypriot citizens than a full-scale bail-in, which would have led to very chaotic consequences in the Cypriot economy,” he said.

Ask a contribution? Really? To me it looks like a confiscation of private property without compensation. [Addendum]: They are receiving bank equity as compensation – forcibly though. And if they are doing this to increase revenue, as they claim, then decreasing their new stakes in the banks by compensating depositors makes this a moot point. Or is this an instance where one could ask to complete the following sentence: “As it is a contribution to the ethnic stability of…”

Dutch Finance Minister seems to practice here something I have heard once before; “There are many forms of something being voluntary; one being that you are forced to do it.” If depositors are ever to lose anything, it should be through a free market bankruptcy, but that is out of the question these days. Moreover, I was under the impression that in an open society the individual has discretion over his or her funds, but in the brave new Europe, the state apparently orders people to make contributions. Though, this development does seem to go hand in hand with earlier attempts by the EU to impose creditor rights on Greek sovereign debt. And in terms of “financial stability”, one would expect this to increase transaction costs and create more distrust, but on the other hand, free money will certainly keep things humming along if that is one’s definition of “inflexible commitment to financial stability” In the real world, integrity of law and individual freedom promote stability, and one should not want to impose resistance to change per se, but promote anti-fragility.

As for Finland, the participation in this was termed successful with the terms being strict, and apparently IMF’s participation was instrumental. The disappearance of basic rights does not appear to be a concern or the fact that we are funding international money laundering now. Conservatism is awesome; there is absolutely no limit to how low you can go.

[Addendum]: Anyone taking bets whether or not this was quietly disclosed to some parties a little bit in advance?

And now you start buying AAPL

At around 600 USD, I thought AAPL was starting to be priced to perfection and that there would be no reason to try to time the highs. Turns out, AAPL hit 705 USD, level that was just little out there, and then tanked down to 419 USD. In the meanwhile net profits rose to 41.7 billion and cash pile to 137 billion. The ex-cash market cap has approximately halved, but they are doing a bit better than I thought.

aapl130313

I think it is time to buy AAPL.

The math looks as follows. At current 428 USD per share, we have 402 billion market cap, which drops to 265 billion excluding cash. At 41.7 billion in net profits, P/E is down to mouthwatering 6.35, a really pessimistic figure. It seems to me the investing public is expecting Apple’s bottom line to halve from its current level. Personally, I am expecting to see bottom line at least in excess of 35 billion this year and possibly record profits next year with the economy turning the corner, not to even mention the nominal figures that tend to get a boost from money sloshing around endlessly, and Apple certainly has the competence to turn top line into bottom line.

Continue reading

In triumph of rules and on the burden borne by liberals

I would like to address few issues with this essay. Foremostly, integrity of law is of paramount importance, yet facing such hostility in at least two distinct ways. Secondly, insofar as integrity of law is intertwined with the proper concept of liberalism, the nature of the latter and its foes needs to be discussed. Needless to say, this topic can only be briefly touched upon. There is a proper meaning to liberalism, but that has been siphoned out of the window only to be replaced with versions of ever-increasing distance to the original intent, some of those being very susceptible to being used for all kinds of anti-liberal deeds. Of particular note is the group proceeding with the logic of inferring unsuitability from fallibility.

“The code is more what you would call guidelines than actual rules.” – Captain Barbossa

“We have to learn the lesson that intellectual honesty is fundamental for everything we cherish.” – Sir Karl Popper (1945)

Rules have come under some duress in recent times; liberals and conservatives of many persuasions despise them, each finding new ways to dethrone them for what can only result in our demise.

As far as can I see, there are two broad types of regulation: one that creates the free market and the other that impairs its function (in many instances there being a broad grey area in between). The government creates, if not the free market itself then its proper functioning through recognition of property rights; it does not exist without it in practical terms (note, however, that rights exist irrespective of the state and are simply recognized and lawfully enforced by the state, but not created by it). In addition to property rights, we need enforceable contracts (in court, not might is right), legitimate book-keeping, property records, ownership records, auditing, minority investor protections, creditor protections, enforcement of certain level of transparency in running a business in exchange for protection of the sanctity of the private property implied thereupon, and a whole lot more to even have something that resembles a market place. Popper (1945) argued the same: “Liberalism and state-interference are not opposed to each other. On the contrary, any kind of freedom is clearly impossible unless it is guaranteed by the state.” The thesis that has been put forth in opposition of Popper’s postulate by those insisting on state supremacy has been demolished in every possible way (that of course does not mean it won’t periodically re-emerge), but to claim that there is something incredibly eloquent and compelling said in advance of anarcho-capitalism and it being the path to some ultimate goal is not to be taken seriously; only a very confused person would infer worthlessness from mere fallibility, which continues to be an important part of understanding our behavior.

Popper (1945) extensively discussed of the two forms of interventionism by the state: one of erecting a legal framework of protective institutions and the other of more direct intervention in nature. On the basis of democracy, the former is greatly preferred. Furthermore, use of discretionary powers, the latter type, is liable to expand in its reach and frequency, if and when it becomes the accustomed way of proceeding with issues of any relevance. Much like the Antifederalists (1787) proclaiming that restrictions become nothing but clogs upon the wheels of the government that will necessarily be done away with where and when possible. Pertaining to this issue, the very instrument in question came under immense duress soon after its ratification followed by rather vocal expressions to redress grievances in favor of rules once agreed upon. Proceeding by the means of stable but alterable institutions bring “a factor of certainty and stability into the social life”, Popper wrote. Those subject to them can duly reflect upon their requirements and make due changes in their own domain, instead of being subjected to arbitrary enforcement that is bound to foster a counter-reaction of more conscious or subconscious nature.

Hayek (1944) discussed the same issue, namely that of stable rules as being of paramount importance to a functioning society. He made some succinct notes about the importance of rules in making governments act predictably: “Nothing distinguishes more clearly conditions in a free country from those in a country under arbitrary government than observance in the former of the great principles known as the Rule of Law. Stripped of all technicalities this means that government in all its actions is bound by rules fixed and announced beforehand – rules which make it possible to foresee with fair certainty how the authority will use its coercive powers in given circumstances, and to plan one’s individual affairs on the basis of this knowledge.” He notably did not wander to the realm of trying to disprove the role of government, and in fact he, as does everyone sharing the same approximate stance that government is to be limited and bound by laws, are the real pro-government people. It goes further than this though, because there is hardly such a decision to be made as to whether or not to have a state; those functions continue to exist irrespective of the supposed answer to this question, because the definition of the state itself is intimately involved with the kind of very basic functions of a society, so the only question remains whether or not those functions are something one sees preferably to be carried out by a republic or not. In this case it is not only the objection to it that becomes anti-state, but the rejection of the proper sphere and domain of its functioning.

Great rules are laid bare for everyone to observe, strict, easy to comprehend, predictable and long lasting. Rules provide us a factor of certainty; they let us provide for ourselves reasonable expectations of other people’s behavior. With rules, we can start building incrementally on top of them and we can assign almost unconditional trust on the spontaneous order.

It is of course not just some of the confused or dispirited followers of Rothbard that foster particularly peculiar antagonism to sensible rules; there is a long list of front line econ professors from whom dictums of ever-increasing oddness can be sourced. Romney and Bush advisor, Columbia professor Glenn Hubbard has been particularly active in giving out advice that does not always seem to adhere to any theory. MIT professor Holmström gladly advocates the view that we need to make everyone stupid for the economy to work because that is the best way to achieve information symmetry. There is also Mr. Mishkin, who is known for writing a puff piece about the greatness of Icelandic economy just before the collapse in 2006. The most interesting thing was that when inquired about it, he stated that the fact that he was paid to write a positive report did not materially impact the fact that the report was particularly positive on Icelandic economy. There are also quite a few Ivy League professors who are all too happy to speculate with ways to force people into spending their hard-earned money by arbitrarily invalidating it at certain time intervals (legal tender for all debts public and private unless government decides otherwise…).

Dewey (1935) wrote: “The historic tendency to conceive the whole question of liberty as a matter in which individual and government are opposed parties has borne bitter fruit.” As it happens, fast-forward 70+ years, and we witness as the new liberals cheer the demise of the rights old liberals died to achieve; the newly found tendency to conceive the whole question of liberty as a matter in which individuals and government are partners in crime, has borne bitter fruit.

In recent times we have come across a wide range of empirical evidence or breakdown of rules ranging from insider trading issues that are not necessarily even crimes per se (Mises Institute offers some interesting aspects on this) to Libor fixing, and from notable accounting frauds at securities houses to the most obscene crimes committed by HSBC in particular. Some of these instances have made Enron management look admirable. While following the Lieborgate scandal, I wasn’t exactly overly surprised by any of it. While some of the statements along the lines of “this shakes the great trust people have towards City banks” continued to show that the level of bullshit is still rather stiff, it cannot be ignored that there was some recognition that deterioration of rule of law is at the very core of our hopefully temporary demise. While Americans replaced the “no one committed any crimes” president with the “no one committed any crimes” president, there are still great strides of progress to be made. It was nonetheless amusing that Euromoney proceeded to pick Barclays of all banks as the best investment bank of the year.

There has been no uncertainty over guilt; the evidence is overwhelming and in many cases, the open admissions of crime leave little room for overt speculation.  Peregrine CEO’s suicide letter was very instructive in terms of motives for such behavior. However, crime itself is not a threat to society in any form or fashion. The actions by the Obama administration, on the other hand, and his Department of Justice in particular, have done immeasurable damage; not one senior person from any financial institution has gone to prison over conduct in the last 10 years with regards to the financial crisis and its underpinnings. We have, of course, seen couple of scapegoats put in prison for much lesser violations, but when it comes to HSBC for example, openly financing worldwide terrorism is considered by Obama to be appropriate behavior all men of good-standing should apparently take part in, as not a single person involved in it will ever go to prison. Similar conduct is true with Wells Fargo and Pfizer cases as well. The reason for this is apparently that the share price might take a hit, so law will take a backseat for now. Moreover, important campaign finance considerations take precedence over law, as is to be expected. Unfortunately, this practice has become familiar to Europeans as well in recent times.

Part of the blame is often assigned to the caveat emptor principle, but crucially, it ought not to be our goal to prevent people from lapses but to have legitimate proceedings for those particular instances, so that the lapses of the latter kind would not foster general contempt for law. While it may come across as apropos to lay the blame on caveat emptor, said principle never asserted that there ought to be no prosecution nor did it condone commission of fraud. Simply because we proceed with the assumption that engaging in a trade removes certain obligations, as it is at your discretion whether or not you will engage in such a trade, never was it meant that such parties would be exempt from law. I hope we could re-discover the importance of recognizing the illegality of criminal fraud and proceed accordingly. Buyer beware is neither a removal of judicial protections nor an enabler of criminals. It is, however, rather ironic that the origin of this concept in US goes back to a person who believed in very broad interpretations of law, namely Chief Justice John Marshall.

Continue reading

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.